Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.1%
Exeter
23.3%
Draw
16.6%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Exeter
vs
0.72
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.568.2%
Over 2.542.4%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.3%
4-0
2.9%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).