Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →5.6%
Arouca
10.3%
Draw
84.1%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Arouca
vs
3.05
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.597.8%
Over 1.588.5%
Over 2.572.0%
Over 3.551.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-3
11.3%
0-2
11.1%
0-4
8.6%
1-3
7.7%
1-2
7.6%
0-1
7.5%
1-4
5.9%
0-5
5.2%
1-1
4.8%
1-5
3.6%
2-3
2.7%
2-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).