Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.8%
St Pauli
18.4%
Draw
18.8%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
2.34
St Pauli
vs
1.21
Man United
Markets
BTTS63.2%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.586.7%
Over 2.568.9%
Over 3.547.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.5%
1-1
7.9%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7.4%
1-0
7.0%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
4.9%
3-2
4.5%
4-1
4.3%
0-1
3.7%
4-0
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).