Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.4%
Portsmouth
29.9%
Draw
39.7%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Portsmouth
vs
1.28
Derby
Markets
BTTS49.1%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
10.4%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.6%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).