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DHT: 10

21 Feb 2026 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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50.4%
Las Palmas
25.0%
Draw
24.5%
Castellon

Expected Goals (xG)

1.57

Las Palmas

vs
1.01

Castellon

Markets

BTTS50.3%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
12.0%
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.9%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).