Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.4%
Las Palmas
25.0%
Draw
24.5%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Las Palmas
vs
1.01
Castellon
Markets
BTTS50.3%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.0%
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.9%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).