Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.3%
Almeria
20.4%
Draw
31.3%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
2.17
Almeria
vs
1.73
Castellon
Markets
BTTS72.8%
Over 0.598.0%
Over 1.590.0%
Over 2.574.7%
Over 3.554.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.2%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.6%
3-1
6.0%
3-2
5.2%
2-0
4.8%
1-0
4.5%
2-3
4.1%
1-3
3.8%
0-1
3.6%
3-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).