Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.0%
Elche
19.9%
Draw
7.1%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Elche
vs
0.39
Lugo
Markets
BTTS27.0%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.565.1%
Over 2.538.4%
Over 3.518.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.9%
2-0
18.2%
3-0
11.1%
0-0
10.7%
1-1
7.6%
2-1
7.1%
4-0
5.1%
3-1
4.3%
0-1
4.3%
4-1
2.0%
5-0
1.9%
1-2
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).