Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.3%
Manchester City
22.4%
Draw
14.3%
Stockton Town
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Manchester City
vs
0.67
Stockton Town
Markets
BTTS39.9%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.568.9%
Over 2.543.1%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
2-0
13.6%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.7%
3-0
7.8%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
5.3%
1-2
3.5%
4-0
3.4%
2-2
3.0%
4-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).