Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.0%
Lugano
28.7%
Draw
48.3%
Thun
Expected Goals (xG)
1.08
Lugano
vs
1.64
Thun
Markets
BTTS55.3%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.551.1%
Over 3.529.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.7%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
5.2%
2-2
5.2%
1-0
5.1%
0-3
4.8%
2-0
3.9%
2-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).