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04 Apr 2026 · 16:00

Thun

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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23.0%
Lugano
28.7%
Draw
48.3%
Thun

Expected Goals (xG)

1.08

Lugano

vs
1.64

Thun

Markets

BTTS55.3%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.551.1%
Over 3.529.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.7%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
5.2%
2-2
5.2%
1-0
5.1%
0-3
4.8%
2-0
3.9%
2-3
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).