Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.7%
Rio Ave
25.5%
Draw
42.9%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Rio Ave
vs
1.38
Nacional
Markets
BTTS50.6%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.571.4%
Over 2.546.4%
Over 3.524.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
9.7%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
7.6%
0-0
7.4%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.2%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).