Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.3%
Casa Pia
27.2%
Draw
28.5%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Casa Pia
vs
0.96
Farense
Markets
BTTS43.8%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.564.8%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.2%
1-1
12.5%
0-1
10.8%
0-0
10.1%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.0%
3-0
3.7%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).