Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.4%
Chelsea
11.2%
Draw
3.4%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
3.01
Chelsea
vs
0.54
Watford
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.587.6%
Over 2.568.9%
Over 3.547.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
13.0%
2-0
13.0%
4-0
9.8%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
5-0
5.9%
1-1
5.3%
4-1
5.3%
0-0
3.5%
5-1
3.2%
3-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).