Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →14.9%
Lugo
32.5%
Draw
52.6%
Alaves
Expected Goals (xG)
0.45
Lugo
vs
1.12
Alaves
Markets
BTTS24.3%
Over 0.579.3%
Over 1.546.4%
Over 2.520.9%
Over 3.57.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
23.4%
0-0
20.7%
0-2
13.0%
1-1
10.4%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
5.9%
0-3
4.9%
2-1
2.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-0
2.1%
0-4
1.4%
2-2
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).