Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.8%
Alverca
18.6%
Draw
73.6%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.58
Alverca
vs
2.17
Benfica
Markets
BTTS39.4%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.551.8%
Over 3.529.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
15.1%
0-1
13.3%
0-3
10.9%
1-2
8.7%
1-1
8.6%
0-0
7.0%
1-3
6.3%
0-4
5.9%
1-4
3.4%
1-0
3.1%
0-5
2.6%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).