Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.1%
Casa Pia
25.6%
Draw
31.3%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Casa Pia
vs
1.38
Arouca
Markets
BTTS61.5%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.558.6%
Over 3.536.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
3-1
5.0%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).