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Luton

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vs

17 Mar 2026 · 19:45

Exeter

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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46.8%
Luton
26.5%
Draw
26.7%
Exeter

Expected Goals (xG)

1.28

Luton

vs
0.88

Exeter

Markets

BTTS41.2%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.562.5%
Over 2.536.7%
Over 3.517.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.8%
1-1
11.9%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.4%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
1.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).