Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.8%
Luton
26.5%
Draw
26.7%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Luton
vs
0.88
Exeter
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.562.5%
Over 2.536.7%
Over 3.517.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
1-1
11.9%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.4%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).