Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.2%
Burgos
30.7%
Draw
31.1%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Burgos
vs
0.92
Malaga
Markets
BTTS39.1%
Over 0.586.3%
Over 1.558.6%
Over 2.531.7%
Over 3.513.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.8%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.9%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
2.7%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).