Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.0%
Werder Bremen
13.2%
Draw
6.9%
Erzgebirge Aue
Expected Goals (xG)
3.00
Werder Bremen
vs
0.84
Erzgebirge Aue
Markets
BTTS54.5%
Over 0.597.3%
Over 1.590.1%
Over 2.573.7%
Over 3.553.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.7%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
8.1%
3-1
8.1%
4-0
7.3%
4-1
6.1%
1-1
6.0%
1-0
5.9%
5-0
4.3%
5-1
3.6%
2-2
3.4%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).