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24 Feb 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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19.9%
Livorno
26.7%
Draw
53.5%
Venezia

Expected Goals (xG)

0.93

Livorno

vs
1.66

Venezia

Markets

BTTS50.2%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.547.9%
Over 3.526.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.3%
0-2
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
5.8%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.4%
1-3
5.3%
2-2
4.5%
2-0
3.2%
2-3
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).