Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.9%
Spal
30.1%
Draw
43.0%
Lazio
Expected Goals (xG)
0.84
Spal
vs
1.14
Lazio
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.586.4%
Over 1.558.6%
Over 2.531.8%
Over 3.513.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.0%
0-0
13.6%
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.8%
0-2
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
5.5%
2-0
4.8%
0-3
3.4%
2-2
3.2%
1-3
2.9%
3-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).