Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.4%
Arouca
23.6%
Draw
41.0%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Arouca
vs
1.53
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS58.5%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.578.5%
Over 2.556.0%
Over 3.533.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
1-0
8.0%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
5.2%
0-0
4.9%
1-3
4.4%
3-1
3.7%
0-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).