Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.1%
Sunderland
21.5%
Draw
19.4%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75
Sunderland
vs
0.87
Burton
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.548.9%
Over 3.527.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
2-0
11.1%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
4.2%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).