Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.1%
York
21.2%
Draw
18.7%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
2.23
York
vs
1.19
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS62.9%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.586.3%
Over 2.566.5%
Over 3.544.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.4%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
7.2%
1-0
6.5%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
3-2
4.3%
4-1
4.0%
0-0
4.0%
4-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).