Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.1%
Aston Villa
27.9%
Draw
34.0%
Liverpool
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Aston Villa
vs
1.41
Liverpool
Markets
BTTS60.2%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.580.2%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
0-0
7.1%
1-0
6.6%
2-0
6.1%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-2
5.4%
3-1
4.3%
1-3
3.8%
3-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).