Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.6%
Brighton
27.8%
Draw
52.6%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Brighton
vs
1.64
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS50.3%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.0%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
9.3%
0-3
5.7%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
5.4%
1-3
5.2%
2-2
4.4%
2-0
3.3%
2-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).