Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.1%
Arsenal
22.6%
Draw
9.3%
Nottingham Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.94
Arsenal
vs
0.60
Nottingham Forest
Markets
BTTS40.0%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.546.8%
Over 3.525.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.8%
1-0
14.0%
1-1
10.4%
3-0
9.6%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
4.7%
0-1
3.5%
4-1
2.8%
1-2
2.8%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).