Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.2%
Derby
26.1%
Draw
25.7%
Portsmouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Derby
vs
0.87
Portsmouth
Markets
BTTS41.4%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.563.1%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
1-1
11.8%
0-1
10.8%
0-0
10.2%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
4.2%
3-1
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).