Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.4%
Farense
27.7%
Draw
27.9%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Farense
vs
0.92
Estrela
Markets
BTTS42.4%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.563.3%
Over 2.537.0%
Over 3.517.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.8%
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
3.8%
3-0
3.7%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).