Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.6%
Derby
19.8%
Draw
11.7%
Milton Keynes Dons
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Derby
vs
0.57
Milton Keynes Dons
Markets
BTTS35.6%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.4%
2-0
15.2%
3-0
9.3%
1-1
8.7%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.3%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
2.7%
2-2
2.5%
4-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).