Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.9%
Sociedad
26.8%
Draw
24.3%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Sociedad
vs
0.96
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.544.0%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
12.6%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).