Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.8%
Bournemouth
28.1%
Draw
32.1%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Bournemouth
vs
1.35
Brighton
Markets
BTTS59.4%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.579.6%
Over 2.554.6%
Over 3.532.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.3%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.6%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
0-2
5.2%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).