Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.6%
Notts County
29.0%
Draw
33.3%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.08
Notts County
vs
1.00
Exeter
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.561.0%
Over 2.534.5%
Over 3.515.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.0%
0-1
13.0%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
11.9%
2-0
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
3.6%
3-0
2.6%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).