Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.8%
Chelsea
24.9%
Draw
23.2%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.93
Chelsea
vs
1.25
Man United
Markets
BTTS62.3%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.583.9%
Over 2.561.5%
Over 3.539.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.8%
1-0
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.6%
3-0
5.0%
3-2
3.9%
0-1
3.8%
0-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).