Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.8%
Santa Clara
28.3%
Draw
27.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Santa Clara
vs
1.07
Arouca
Markets
BTTS51.2%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
4.6%
3-1
4.4%
3-0
4.1%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).