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AHT: 20CSV

17 Dec 2023 · 15:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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22.2%
Lecco
27.3%
Draw
50.5%
Ternana

Expected Goals (xG)

0.99

Lecco

vs
1.60

Ternana

Markets

BTTS51.3%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.547.9%
Over 3.526.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.8%
0-2
9.6%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.1%
1-3
5.1%
2-2
4.7%
2-0
3.7%
2-3
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).