Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.4%
Padova
31.0%
Draw
28.6%
Spezia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Padova
vs
1.01
Spezia
Markets
BTTS46.8%
Over 0.588.3%
Over 1.567.4%
Over 2.539.4%
Over 3.519.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.7%
1-0
11.7%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).