Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.2%
Hull
26.7%
Draw
35.1%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Hull
vs
1.40
Derby
Markets
BTTS58.7%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.578.7%
Over 2.554.5%
Over 3.532.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
0-2
5.6%
3-1
4.2%
1-3
3.8%
3-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).