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03 Aug 2024 · 14:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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58.8%
Newmarket Town
16.6%
Draw
24.6%
Man United

Expected Goals (xG)

2.95

Newmarket Town

vs
1.95

Man United

Markets

BTTS81.2%
Over 0.599.4%
Over 1.595.5%
Over 2.586.7%
Over 3.572.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-1
6.3%
3-1
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
3-2
6.1%
4-1
4.6%
4-2
4.5%
1-2
4.2%
1-1
4.1%
2-3
4.0%
3-3
3.9%
2-0
3.2%
3-0
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).