Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.8%
Birmingham
20.1%
Draw
10.1%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77
Birmingham
vs
0.47
Exeter
Markets
BTTS30.6%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.564.8%
Over 2.538.8%
Over 3.518.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.5%
2-0
16.6%
0-0
9.9%
3-0
9.8%
1-1
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
4.6%
4-0
4.3%
1-2
2.1%
4-1
2.0%
2-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).