Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →77.9%
Sp Braga
13.7%
Draw
8.4%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.61
Sp Braga
vs
0.73
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS47.8%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.584.4%
Over 2.565.0%
Over 3.543.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.0%
3-0
10.5%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
8.8%
3-1
7.7%
4-0
6.9%
1-1
6.4%
4-1
5.0%
5-0
3.6%
0-0
3.2%
2-2
3.2%
0-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).