Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.9%
Santa Clara
29.2%
Draw
28.9%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Santa Clara
vs
0.88
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS39.2%
Over 0.587.3%
Over 1.559.3%
Over 2.532.8%
Over 3.514.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
1-1
12.7%
0-0
12.7%
0-1
12.3%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).