Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.1%
Mainz
27.7%
Draw
25.2%
M'gladbach
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Mainz
vs
1.03
M'gladbach
Markets
BTTS50.6%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.546.1%
Over 3.524.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).