Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →74.9%
Villarreal
14.7%
Draw
10.4%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
2.84
Villarreal
vs
1.01
Almeria
Markets
BTTS60.1%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.589.9%
Over 2.573.9%
Over 3.553.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.7%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
3-0
8.1%
1-1
6.3%
1-0
5.8%
4-1
5.8%
4-0
5.8%
2-2
4.4%
3-2
4.1%
5-1
3.3%
5-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).