Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.7%
Port Vale
24.1%
Draw
27.2%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Port Vale
vs
1.11
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS52.6%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.550.3%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
6.6%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).