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30 Apr 2022 · 13:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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29.7%
Cittadella
33.4%
Draw
36.9%
Brescia

Expected Goals (xG)

0.93

Cittadella

vs
1.07

Brescia

Markets

BTTS41.3%
Over 0.585.2%
Over 1.560.9%
Over 2.532.5%
Over 3.514.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.8%
0-1
13.1%
1-0
11.2%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
3.4%
0-3
2.8%
1-3
2.6%
3-1
2.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).