Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.0%
Roma
21.9%
Draw
12.1%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77
Roma
vs
0.59
Spal
Markets
BTTS37.0%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.568.2%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.8%
2-0
14.7%
1-1
9.7%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
8.7%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.2%
4-0
3.8%
1-2
2.9%
2-2
2.6%
4-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).