Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.4%
Vallecano
28.2%
Draw
18.3%
Las Palmas
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Vallecano
vs
0.71
Las Palmas
Markets
BTTS38.7%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.562.8%
Over 2.535.4%
Over 3.516.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.6%
0-0
12.5%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
12.0%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.2%
3-1
4.0%
0-2
3.0%
2-2
3.0%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).