Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.2%
Alcorcon
34.9%
Draw
20.9%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97
Alcorcon
vs
0.56
Lugo
Markets
BTTS26.6%
Over 0.578.5%
Over 1.545.2%
Over 2.519.9%
Over 3.57.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
21.5%
1-0
21.0%
0-1
12.3%
1-1
11.7%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
5.7%
0-2
3.4%
1-2
3.3%
3-0
3.3%
3-1
1.8%
2-2
1.6%
4-0
0.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).