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04 Jan 2026 · 15:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.9%
Rio Ave
24.1%
Draw
38.0%
Casa Pia

Expected Goals (xG)

1.41

Rio Ave

vs
1.42

Casa Pia

Markets

BTTS56.8%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.553.8%
Over 3.531.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.3%
0-1
8.9%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
2-0
5.9%
0-0
5.4%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
3.9%
0-3
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).