Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.1%
Brentford
29.7%
Draw
26.1%
Birmingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Brentford
vs
0.98
Birmingham
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.568.6%
Over 2.541.1%
Over 3.520.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
10.9%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.7%
2-2
4.2%
3-0
4.0%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).